Last season, in an act of shortsighted stupidity, I picked the Philadelphia Phillies to win the East. I am not going to make that kind of boneheaded mistake again. Until someone jumps up and beats the Braves, I'm picking Atlanta, even if it is against all odds.

Astute fans will notice one big difference in spring training this season. Leo Mazzone, considered by just about anyone with a brain to be the best pitching coach in baseball, is long gone. Mazzone took his baggy uniform and sack of sunflower seeds to Baltimore where, by all accounts, he will have his work cut out for him. That leaves Bobby Cox to sit in the dugout sans Mazzone, with his penchant for rocking back and forth and spitting seed hulls all over Bobby's shoes.

What's a manager to do?

Mazzone has been replaced, if he can be replaced, by Roger McDowell. McDowell will have some questions to answer this spring as far as Braves pitching is concerned. The biggest task is deciding just who will be Atlanta's closer.

Last year's fireman was supposed to be Danny Kolb. However, Kolb turned out to be as effective as an aging grandmother in closing out games for Atlanta. Kolb ended up getting torched more frequently than a Kuwaiti oil field and, by all accounts, was a total bomb.

Mazzone and Cox experimented quite a bit throughout midseason, finally settling on Chris Reitsma. Reitsma performed admirably if not spectacularly and figures to be the favorite to resume the closer's role in 2006.

Health will once again be the issue for the Braves' starters in 2006. John Smoltz, who will turn 39 in June, will be the ace. Smoltz is a gamer and can be counted upon to deliver consistent quality starts and eat up a lot of innings. Late last season Smoltz had some tenderness in his elbow and hamstring problems so he will need to be watched early and often.

Mike Hampton and Tim Hudson are the second and third starters on this team and, when healthy, both are quality pitchers who flash brilliance from time to time. Problem is, both Hampton and Hudson have a tendency to go on the shelf for extended periods of time. Both spent long stints on the disable list last season and their combined history of injury is enough to have both Cox and McDowell reaching for the Portable Pepto already.

John Thomson is another source of hope and concern. Thomson is a legitimate star-in-the-making. He has all the tools and could well have a breakout year in 2006. Problem is, Thomson has also had major problems staying healthy. After getting off to a great start, the right hander blew out his shoulder and his back in quick succession and watched most of the Atlanta season from the comfort of the disabled list. If Thomson is healthy, and if Hampton and Hudson can stay in one piece, Atlanta will have by far the best starting pitching in the National League. If any one of these guys goes down, it could be a long season at Turner Field.

Horacio Ramirez figures to be the No. 5 starter and may well be a rising star. The southpaw put up good numbers last season, going 11-9 with a 4.62 ERA.

Edgar Renteria is the only new face in the Atlanta infield this season and Braves' followers are counting on Renteria returning to the form he flashed with the Cardinals and Marlins before having a meltdown season in Bean Town in 2005. Renteria's double play partner will be the solid Marcus Giles. Adam LaRoche returns at first base and the big left hander has shown improvement at the plate every year.

Chipper Jones will man the hot corner again and, if he can stay healthy, could put up big numbers. In the outfield, Andruw Jones, who hit 50 homeruns last year, will again patrol centerfield, flanked by sophomore's Jeff Francoeur and a rotation of Kelly Johnson and Ryan Langerhans.

Francoeur, Kelly and Langerhans all performed well as rookies last year, as did utility man Wilson Betemit. Another sophomore, Brian McCann has won the starting job behind the plate.

Atlanta's real strength this season may be the depth of its roster. Although the Braves will leave spring training with a bevy of younger players, these sophomores have proved their mettle by winning the East last year.

How will all of this pan out in 2006? Will it be another year of thick and thin? Stay tuned.