A fluke you say? Keep reading.

In 2000 the Mets made it all the way to the Big Show as a Wild Card. In 2002, both Series teams, the Angels and Giants, got there as Wild Cards. In 2003 the Marlins, again a Wild Card, went back to the Fall Classic and won it all.

Who can forget what happened the following year.

The Red Sox, a Wild Card mind you, tore through post-season American League play and then followed that up by taking four straight games from the Cardinals. Last season, the Astros, a Wild Card, made it all the way to the Series.

Maybe we ought to pay a little more attention to these mediocre teams trying to qualify for post-season action. For that matter, why is it that the Wild Cards seem to do so well?

It all starts with the Divisional Series format. The winner of a best-of-five series advances. Any team can get hot enough to win three games, even with less than solid pitching. In the Divisional Series, due to days off, a team with only two decent starting pitchers can pitch those two guys twice each on three days rest. This often makes for Upset City. Once into the League Championship Series, the Wild Card often has built confidence and momentum and, well, anything can happen at that point. Just witness the last 10 years.

As for this season, six teams are currently within three games of the Wild Card. San Diego is currently on top, with Philadelphia nipping at their heels a game-and-a-half back. The Marlins and Giants are two games back, followed closely by the Astros and Reds. And, Atlanta is still in the mix despite an inconsistent season.

Which of these teams might emerge the victor?

Right now money is on San Diego, which possesses a game-and-a-half lead. The Padres are not very good offensively, but their pitching staff is starting to come around. Jay Peavy pitched a whale of game last Saturday night, striking out 14 batters and looking like the Peavy of old. Also, San Diego traded for David Wells last Thursday, giving them a wily left-hander with post-season experience.

Philadelphia is loaded with power, but seems inconsistent in its pitching staff. Ryan Howard, as of Monday, had 52 homers and drilled three taters on Sunday against the Braves. The rest of the Philly lineup is strong, with Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley leading the way.

The Marlins have surprised everyone in baseball. Left for dead early in the season, Florida climbed back into contention under the leadership of rookie Manager Joe Girardi and could end up winning this thing. Florida has two legitimate stars in Miguel Cabrerra and Dontrelle Willis. The remainder of the pitching staff, although young, seems strong and reliable. The Giants are streaky but old. If they make it, it will be a tribute to tenacity and Geritol.

The Reds looked like the real deal, but faded in the August heat.

That leaves the Astros. On the face of it, Houston appears to have a long shot chance of winning the Wild Card. If they do, I am of the opinion that, given the Divisional Series format, the Astros would be the most dangerous team in the post-season.

Why? I’m glad you asked.

Houston has three front line starters that are probably the best in baseball. Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt, and Andy Pettite provide a top three that can get a team a long way in October. Houston’s problem is lack of offense. This team just doesn’t score runs. With their lineup, it is a mystery.

With just a little bit of offense, the Astros could go all the way.

So, which of these six teams will be left standing come the first week in October? Stay tuned.